Telstar 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Telstar welcome Roda to 711 Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Telstar, 3 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Roda in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus Roda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 48% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.10 xG and Roda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.826 / defence 1.088 | Roda attack 0.929 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. Data: 65 Telstar games / 65 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Telstar 1.10 / Roda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.826 / def 1.088 | Roda attack 0.929 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Roda kick off?
Telstar vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Roda?
Telstar 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Telstar vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Roda part of?
Telstar vs Roda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 29% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Telstar and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Telstar 2W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are Telstar and Roda in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Roda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.83) and Roda's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.37
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.48
1.37
Roda xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Telstar and 1.37 for Roda, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 16D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.48 PPG from 65 outings (27W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.17 PPG, Roda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Roda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Roda away?
Telstar's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.38 PPG; Roda away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 53%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Telstar) and 44% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Roda in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Telstar's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Telstar's recent games and 44% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Roda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Roda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Telstar and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.10 xG and Roda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 48%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.17 PPG, Roda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.