Telstar 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Telstar welcome Roda to 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Telstar stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Telstar have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Telstar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Roda have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Telstar have won 2, Roda 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Telstar 0–3 Roda — a Roda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Roda in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus Roda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 48% | Roda 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Telstar surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.10 xG and Roda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.826 / defence 1.088 | Roda attack 0.929 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. Data: built from Telstar's last 65 games and Roda's last 65.
Result probabilities: Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.48 | Draw 3.37 | Roda 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 70% (last 10 home games) | Roda 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Telstar 1.10 / Roda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.826 / def 1.088 | Roda attack 0.929 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Telstar vs Roda FAQs
What time does Telstar vs Roda kick off?
Telstar vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Roda?
Telstar 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Telstar vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Roda part of?
Telstar vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 29% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Telstar and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Telstar vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.83) and Roda's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Telstar's last 65 games and Roda's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.37
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.48
1.37
Roda xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Telstar vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Telstar and 1.37 for Roda, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 16D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.48 PPG from 65 outings (27W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.17 PPG, Roda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 9D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Roda
Blended
Telstar (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Telstar
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Telstar vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Telstar and Roda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Roda away?
Telstar's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.38 PPG; Roda away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won Roda 3-0 Telstar.
Telstar's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Telstar vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Telstar have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Telstar and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 53%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Telstar) and 44% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Roda in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Telstar vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Telstar and Roda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Telstar's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Telstar and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Telstar's recent games and 44% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Telstar's recent matches and 75% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Telstar and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.10 xG and Roda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 29% | Draw 30% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 48%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.17 PPG, Roda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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