Jong PSV U21 3-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Cambuur at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 0.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 4–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Cambuur 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 70% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.876 / defence 1.174 | Cambuur attack 1.161 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.339. Data: 65 Jong PSV U21 games / 27 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Cambuur 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.55 / Cambuur 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.876 / def 1.174 | Cambuur attack 1.161 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Cambuur xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 March 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance of winning, Cambuur a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.92
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.37
1.82
Cambuur xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
5%
19.69
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.82 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 15D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.95 PPG from 61 outings (16W 10D 35L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.08 PPG, Cambuur on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.41 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 35L in their last 61 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Cambuur away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.23 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 70%, Cambuur at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong PSV U21 and 63% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jong PSV U21's games and 63% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 63% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Cambuur 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Cambuur attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 43%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Cambuur 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.