Telstar 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
De Graafschap have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Telstar, 0.70 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Telstar lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 67% and De Graafschap 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 64% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.842 / defence 1.330 | De Graafschap attack 0.943 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.396. Data: 42 Telstar games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 50% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Telstar 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.842 / def 1.330 | De Graafschap attack 0.943 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.75
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs De Graafschap kick off?
Telstar vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Telstar 0 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Telstar vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs De Graafschap part of?
Telstar vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Telstar and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.84) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.94x) against Telstar's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.86
23%
4.38
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.33
1.75
De Graafschap xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.47
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Telstar and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Telstar and 1.75 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar's recent record stands at 9W 12D 21L from 42 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 15L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Telstar against 1.31 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 5W 5D 11L from 21 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.31 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 9W 12D 21L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.95 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Telstar or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 62%, De Graafschap 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Telstar and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Telstar's games and 52% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Telstar's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Telstar and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Telstar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 0-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Telstar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against De Graafschap attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 64%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 0.93 PPG, De Graafschap 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.