Roda 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Willem II travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Willem II and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.00 xG and Willem II 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.773 / defence 1.048 | Willem II attack 1.217 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Roda's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Roda games / 34 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 19% | Draw 22% | Willem II 60%. Fair-value odds: Roda 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 19% | Draw 22% | Willem II 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Roda 1.00 / Willem II 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.773 / def 1.048 | Willem II attack 1.217 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Willem II (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Willem II xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Willem II kick off?
Roda vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Willem II?
Roda 0 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Roda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Willem II part of?
Roda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 19% chance of winning, Willem II a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Roda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 2W.
What form are Roda and Willem II in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Roda's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
19%
5.31
22%
4.62
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Roda xG
Total xG
2.95
1.95
Willem II xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
3%
37.23
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Roda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Roda and 1.95 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Roda have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 26W 22D 24L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 23W 17D 32L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.39 PPG, Willem II on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 10D 15L from 36 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.28 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Willem II in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Willem II have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Willem II away?
Roda's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.39 PPG; Willem II away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Roda
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Roda) and 53% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Roda's recent matches and 61% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Roda's recent games and 53% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Willem II tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Willem II in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.00 xG and Willem II 1.95 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Willem II attack 1.22 / defence 0.83, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 19% | Draw 22% | Willem II 60%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.39 PPG, Willem II 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.