Roda 1-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Telstar travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.50 PPG versus Telstar's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Roda, 2 for Telstar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Telstar in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Telstar 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Telstar 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.35 xG and Telstar 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.019 / defence 0.818 | Telstar attack 0.910 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.426. Data: 51 Roda games / 51 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 28% | Telstar 29%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Telstar 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Roda 50% | Telstar 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 28% | Telstar 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 1.35 / Telstar 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.019 / def 0.818 | Telstar attack 0.910 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Telstar xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Telstar kick off?
Roda vs Telstar kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Telstar?
Roda 1 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Roda vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Telstar part of?
Roda vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 43% chance of winning, Telstar a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Telstar?
Record (6 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 1 | Telstar 2W.
What form are Roda and Telstar in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Telstar (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Roda vs Telstar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Roda's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.54
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Roda xG
Total xG
2.41
1.06
Telstar xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Roda and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Roda and 1.06 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Roda have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 23W 17D 11L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 13W 15D 23L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 2.21 PPG from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Telstar have gone 5W 6D 13L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.29 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Telstar in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 17D 11L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Telstar have gone 13W 15D 23L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Telstar away?
Roda's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.21 PPG; Telstar away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Roda or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Telstar in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Telstar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Roda
1
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Telstar have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Telstar?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Telstar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Roda) and 42% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Telstar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 54% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Roda's recent games and 42% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Telstar tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Telstar in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Telstar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Telstar 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.35 xG and Telstar 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Telstar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Telstar attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 43% | Draw 28% | Telstar 29%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Telstar 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Telstar's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.