Roda 3-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Jong AZ meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong AZ (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 1–6 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 53% and Jong AZ 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.40 xG and Jong AZ 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.898 / defence 0.718 | Jong AZ attack 0.888 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.288. Roda's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Roda games / 62 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 50% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Jong AZ 4.76. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 30% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 50% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Roda 1.40 / Jong AZ 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.898 / def 0.718 | Jong AZ attack 0.888 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Roda (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Jong AZ xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong AZ kick off?
Roda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Roda 3 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Roda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong AZ part of?
Roda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 50% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Roda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.90x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.89x) against Roda's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.47
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Roda xG
Total xG
2.22
0.82
Jong AZ xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Roda and 0.82 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda's recent record stands at 29W 18D 15L from 62 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 25L across 62 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Roda against 1.37 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Roda have managed 19W 6D 5L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.65 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 29W 18D 15L in their last 62 games (1.69 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong AZ away?
Roda's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.10 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jong AZ have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 43%, Jong AZ 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Roda and 63% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Roda's games and 70% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 63% of Jong AZ's.
Do Roda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Jong AZ finished level at 3-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.40 xG and Jong AZ 0.82 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.90 / defence 0.72 against Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 50% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 52%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.69 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.