Roda 1-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Jong Ajax at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 7W 2D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Roda, 0 for Jong Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and Jong Ajax 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Jong Ajax 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.10 xG and Jong Ajax 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.215 / defence 1.040 | Jong Ajax attack 0.999 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.287. Data: 39 Roda games / 39 Jong Ajax games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Roda 2.10 / Jong Ajax 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.215 / def 1.040 | Jong Ajax attack 0.999 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Roda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong Ajax xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Roda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Roda 1 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is Roda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Ajax part of?
Roda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 55% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Roda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.22x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.76
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Roda xG
Total xG
3.43
1.34
Jong Ajax xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
3%
33.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Roda and 1.34 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 18W 13D 8L from 39 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 11L across 39 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.72 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.13 scored and 1.64 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 79%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 18W 13D 8L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Ajax away?
Roda's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.89 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Roda's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
5
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 53%, Jong Ajax 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Roda and 63% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Roda's games and 74% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Roda's matches and 63% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Roda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong Ajax 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Ajax 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.10 xG and Jong Ajax 1.34 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Jong Ajax attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 55% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Jong Ajax 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.72 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.