Roda 6-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Roda) versus 1.70 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.801 / defence 1.136 | Den Bosch attack 1.045 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.403. Data: 48 Roda games / 48 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 33% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 43%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 33% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Roda 1.42 / Den Bosch 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.801 / def 1.136 | Den Bosch attack 1.045 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Roda 6 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 33% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.80) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.22
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Roda xG
Total xG
3.08
1.67
Den Bosch xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Roda and 1.67 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 16L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.58 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Roda or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 46%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 67% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Den Bosch in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Roda's recent matches and 50% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Roda's matches and 67% of Den Bosch's.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Den Bosch 6-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.67 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Den Bosch attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 33% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 43%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.