Roda 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Cambuur meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambuur (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cambuur in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Roda, 0 for Cambuur and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cambuur — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus Cambuur 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Cambuur 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.892 / defence 0.767 | Cambuur attack 1.325 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.358. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Roda's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Roda games / 59 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 25% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Roda 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Roda 30% | Cambuur 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 25% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Roda 0.97 / Cambuur 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.892 / def 0.767 | Cambuur attack 1.325 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cambuur xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Cambuur kick off?
Roda vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Roda 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Roda vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Cambuur part of?
Roda vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 25% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Roda and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Roda and Cambuur in?
Roda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.32x) against Roda's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
25%
3.93
29%
3.43
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Roda xG
Total xG
2.35
1.38
Cambuur xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.63
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Roda and 1.38 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Roda have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 28W 18D 13L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 24W 10D 25L from 59 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Roda against 1.39 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Roda have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (18W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 13W 3D 12L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.69 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 28W 18D 13L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 24W 10D 25L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Cambuur away?
Roda's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.14 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Roda or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cambuur in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
4
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 46%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 61% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Roda's recent matches and 54% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 61% of Cambuur's.
Do Roda and Cambuur tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.38 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against Cambuur attack 1.32 / defence 0.70, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 25% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.73 PPG, Cambuur 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.