NAC Breda vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as NAC Breda welcome Emmen to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.90 (Emmen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Emmen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against NAC Breda's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 3–0 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Emmen have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Emmen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Emmen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.85 xG and Emmen 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / defence 1.205 | Emmen attack 1.097 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 49 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 21% | Emmen 41%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | Emmen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Emmen 60%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 21% | Emmen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG NAC Breda 1.85 / Emmen 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / def 1.205 | Emmen attack 1.097 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Emmen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Emmen xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Emmen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Emmen part of?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 38% chance of winning, Emmen a 41% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both NAC Breda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Record (8 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Emmen 5W.
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.91x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
38%
2.64
21%
4.69
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.79
1.93
Emmen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
14%
6.90
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.93 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 13D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.42 PPG from 45 outings (18W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.09 PPG, Emmen on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.71 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Emmen have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Emmen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.32 PPG; Emmen away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Emmen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 68% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 32% of games; Emmen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 59% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do NAC Breda and Emmen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.