MVV 0-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates MVV at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Geusselt — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for MVV, 1.70 for Jong AZ — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — MVV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong AZ in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: MVV 3W, Jong AZ 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 58% and Jong AZ 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 64% | Jong AZ 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.26 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.285 / defence 1.048 | Jong AZ attack 1.163 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.299. MVV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 MVV games / 67 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 53% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 27%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.89 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 3.70. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 60% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 53% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG MVV 2.26 / Jong AZ 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.285 / def 1.048 | Jong AZ attack 1.163 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: MVV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Jong AZ xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong AZ kick off?
MVV vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
MVV 0 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is MVV vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong AZ part of?
MVV vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 53% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 27% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both MVV and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): MVV 3W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.28x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.16x) against MVV's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
53%
1.89
20%
4.91
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
MVV xG
Total xG
3.85
1.58
Jong AZ xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
3%
36.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for MVV and 1.58 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 17D 26L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.37 PPG from 67 outings (26W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for MVV against 1.37 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 15W 9D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (9W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.72 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 69%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 24W 17D 26L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 26W 14D 27L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong AZ away?
MVV's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.64 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong AZ have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 58%, Jong AZ 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for MVV and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of MVV's games and 70% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of MVV's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do MVV and Jong AZ tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.26 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Jong AZ attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 53% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 27%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Jong AZ 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.