MVV 3-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (MVV) versus 1.70 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for MVV, 4 for De Graafschap and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with MVV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 50% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 59% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.36 xG and De Graafschap 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.937 / defence 0.981 | De Graafschap attack 1.051 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: 66 MVV games / 66 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 33% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 40%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 80% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 33% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG MVV 1.36 / De Graafschap 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.937 / def 0.981 | De Graafschap attack 1.051 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.50
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV 3 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 33% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 3 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.94x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.74
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
MVV xG
Total xG
2.86
1.50
De Graafschap xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for MVV and 1.50 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, MVV have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 18W 16D 32L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 32W 15D 19L from 66 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 11W 9D 12L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 18W 16D 32L in their last 66 games (1.06 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 32W 15D 19L in their last 66 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
MVV's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.53 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, De Graafschap 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for MVV and 59% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of MVV's games and 66% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of MVV's matches and 59% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and De Graafschap finished level at 3-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.36 xG and De Graafschap 1.50 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 33% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 40%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.