Jong PSV U21 2-3 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Roda at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda encounter.

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Match Analysis

Jong PSV U21 host Roda at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 32). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Jong PSV U21 — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong PSV U21 at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Roda stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Roda away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, Roda 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Jong PSV U21 1–2 Roda — a Roda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 34%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Roda in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Roda 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 71% | Roda 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong PSV U21 surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.23 xG and Roda 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.036 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 1.035 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.341. Roda bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jong PSV U21's projected output down. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 69 games and Roda's last 69.

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.45 | Draw 3.87 | Roda 2.21. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 home games) | Roda 50% (last 10 away games).

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