Emmen 4-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Emmen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Emmen welcome Jong Ajax to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.30 (Jong Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Emmen, 1 for Jong Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jong Ajax trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 53% and Jong Ajax 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | Jong Ajax 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.42 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.841 / defence 0.883 | Jong Ajax attack 1.021 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.306. Data: 30 Emmen games / 69 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 42% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 31%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Jong Ajax 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 42% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Emmen 1.42 / Jong Ajax 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.841 / def 0.883 | Jong Ajax attack 1.021 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Emmen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong Ajax xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen 4 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 42% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Emmen and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.18
Jong Ajax xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Emmen and 1.18 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 16D 32L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.19 PPG from 68 outings (21W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.12 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 11W 11D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.94 points per game from 33 outings (7W 10D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.69 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 68%.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 21W 18D 29L in their last 68 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Ajax away?
Emmen's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.33 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Jong Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Emmen's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
2
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 42%, Jong Ajax 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Emmen) and 67% (Jong Ajax).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Emmen's games and 79% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Emmen's recent games and 67% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Ajax 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.42 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.84 / defence 0.88 against Jong Ajax attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 42% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 31%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 54%, Jong Ajax 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.12 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.