Jong AZ vs Vitesse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 5 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Vitesse (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Vitesse have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Jong AZ 1W, Vitesse 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Vitesse — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 63% and Vitesse 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 69% | Vitesse 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.06 xG and Vitesse 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / defence 1.012 | Vitesse attack 0.897 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 49 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 30% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Vitesse 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 30% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Jong AZ 1.06 / Vitesse 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / def 1.012 | Vitesse attack 0.897 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Vitesse xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Vitesse kick off?
Jong AZ vs Vitesse is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 5 April 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Vitesse part of?
Jong AZ vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 30% chance of winning, Vitesse a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jong AZ and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Vitesse in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.80x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.90x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
30%
3.35
27%
3.64
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Vitesse xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.33 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 16W 6D 27L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse's form line: 20W 13D 16L from 49 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.49 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (6W 2D 16L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 11W 5D 8L from 24 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.63 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Vitesse in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 27L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.83 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-0 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Vitesse 2-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jong AZ) and 54% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong AZ's matches and 54% of Vitesse's.
Do Jong AZ and Vitesse tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.