Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host FC Eindhoven at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Ajax — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Sportpark De Toekomst this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 1.60 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong Ajax, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 57% versus FC Eindhoven 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 63% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.87 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.095 / defence 0.782 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.174 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.286. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Jong Ajax games / 65 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 4.35. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 30% | FC Eindhoven 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 3 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong Ajax 1.87 / FC Eindhoven 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.095 / def 0.782 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.174 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Eindhoven xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 March 2025 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong Ajax 0 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 53% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 4 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.23
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.05
1.18
FC Eindhoven xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
4%
27.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.18 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 18W 17D 30L from 65 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 25L across 65 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.09 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 13W 9D 10L from 32 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.31 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 18W 17D 30L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 21D 25L in their last 65 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 44%, FC Eindhoven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jong Ajax) and 59% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Eindhoven in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 56% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Jong Ajax's matches and 59% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.87 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.18 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.9 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.17 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 23%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 63%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.09 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.