FC Volendam 3-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Den Bosch travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kras Stadion this season.
Den Bosch — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Den Bosch are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 66% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 70% | Den Bosch 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.37 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.066 / defence 1.113 | Den Bosch attack 0.922 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.476. Data: 10 FC Volendam games / 48 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Den Bosch 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC Volendam 50% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.37 / Den Bosch 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.066 / def 1.113 | Den Bosch attack 0.922 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch part of?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 32% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.37
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.88
1.51
Den Bosch xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.51 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 9W 8D 27L from 44 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 19L across 44 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 0.80 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 5W 2D 14L from 21 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 9W 8D 27L in their last 44 games (0.80 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.81 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Den Bosch runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Den Bosch have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 48%, Den Bosch 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Volendam) and 48% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 33%; FC Volendam have failed to score in 38% of games; Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 33% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 48% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC Volendam and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Den Bosch 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.37 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 32% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 38%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.80 PPG, Den Bosch 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.