FC OSS 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees MVV travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
MVV — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 0.40 PPG, MVV 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, MVV have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for FC OSS.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 1–5 with MVV winning.
It is worth noting that MVV have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 49% versus MVV 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 61% | MVV 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.34 xG and MVV 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.744 / defence 1.466 | MVV attack 1.132 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.338. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 FC OSS games / 51 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 21% | Draw 22% | MVV 56%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | MVV 1.79. The model has a clear lean to MVV (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 21% | Draw 22% | MVV 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG FC OSS 1.34 / MVV 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.744 / def 1.466 | MVV attack 1.132 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: MVV (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.22
MVV xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs MVV kick off?
FC OSS vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs MVV?
FC OSS 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is FC OSS vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs MVV part of?
FC OSS vs MVV is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 21% chance of winning, MVV a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC OSS and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
Record (4 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 1 | MVV 3W.
What form are FC OSS and MVV in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
21%
4.68
22%
4.48
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.56
2.22
MVV xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
2%
43.15
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.22 for MVV, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 12W 8D 31L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 20W 9D 22L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, MVV are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
On the road, MVV have gone 7W 3D 15L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and MVV in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 31L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while MVV have gone 20W 9D 22L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or MVV away?
FC OSS's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.08 PPG; MVV away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when MVV won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
2
Draws
5
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, MVV have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when MVV 0-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 48%, MVV 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC OSS and 72% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC OSS's games and 68% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC OSS's matches and 72% of MVV's.
Do FC OSS and MVV tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, MVV in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out FC OSS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat FC OSS 0-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.34 xG and MVV 2.22 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. MVV landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.74 / defence 1.47 against MVV attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 21% | Draw 22% | MVV 56%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 61%, MVV 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
MVV's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.