ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 42%, yet in-form ADO Den Haag provide a compelling counter-argument — this ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Cambuur meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
ADO Den Haag (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Bingoal Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bingoal Stadion this season.
Cambuur have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Cambuur in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 66% versus Cambuur 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 60% | Cambuur 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.42 xG and Cambuur 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.090 / defence 1.189 | Cambuur attack 1.591 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.344. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.591 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 ADO Den Haag games / 13 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 38% | Draw 19% | Cambuur 42%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.63 | Draw 5.26 | Cambuur 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 4.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ADO Den Haag (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 84% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 90% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 38% | Draw 19% | Cambuur 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 84% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.42 / Cambuur 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.090 / def 1.189 | Cambuur attack 1.591 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Cambuur xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 38% chance of winning, Cambuur a 42% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.59x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.54.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-3 (5.6%), 1-2 (5.5%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
38%
2.61
19%
5.19
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 3
5.6%
Away win
1 – 2
5.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
4.96
2.54
Cambuur xG
2.61
38%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
73%
Over 3.5
1.37
27%
Under 3.5
3.70
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.18
16%
BTTS No
6.41
Clean Sheet
8%
12.71
9%
11.27
Win to Nil
3%
33.19
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.6%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.54 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.96.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 17D 11L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.83 PPG from 47 outings (11W 6D 30L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (4W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.28 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 19W 17D 11L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 11W 6D 30L in their last 47 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Cambuur away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.32 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Cambuur have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
5
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Cambuur have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for ADO Den Haag, 59% for Cambuur — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ADO Den Haag and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of ADO Den Haag's games and 59% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Cambuur tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out ADO Den Haag 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.42 xG and Cambuur 2.54 xG, a combined 4.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.09 / defence 1.19 against Cambuur attack 1.59 / defence 1.39, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 38% | Draw 19% | Cambuur 42%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 73% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 84% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 60%, Cambuur 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.