FC OSS 0-3 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC OSS at 49%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dordrecht have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.70 PPG clear of FC OSS in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Dordrecht in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: FC OSS 2W, Dordrecht 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 42% versus Dordrecht 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 44% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.56 xG and Dordrecht 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.149 / defence 0.940 | Dordrecht attack 0.894 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.269. Data: 41 FC OSS games / 41 Dordrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 3.85. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 30% | Dordrecht 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG FC OSS 1.56 / Dordrecht 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.149 / def 0.940 | Dordrecht attack 0.894 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dordrecht xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 0 - 3 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 49% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Record (8 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.89x) against FC OSS's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.95
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.62
1.07
Dordrecht xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.07 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 9W 14D 18L from 41 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 11L across 41 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC OSS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 8W 2D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.76 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Dordrecht in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 22W 8D 11L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Dordrecht away?
FC OSS's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.55 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.30 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 45%, Dordrecht 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC OSS) and 45% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht in 35%; FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games; Dordrecht in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FC OSS's recent matches and 35% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC OSS's recent games and 45% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 0-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.56 xG and Dordrecht 1.07 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.