FC OSS 1-8 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 49%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC OSS welcome Cambuur to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cambuur's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 50% versus Cambuur 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 59% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.90 xG and Cambuur 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.795 / defence 0.968 | Cambuur attack 1.082 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.283. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 FC OSS games / 12 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 26%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 3.85. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FC OSS 1.90 / Cambuur 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.795 / def 0.968 | Cambuur attack 1.082 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Cambuur xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Cambuur kick off?
FC OSS vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Cambuur?
FC OSS 1 - 8 Cambuur.
Where is FC OSS vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Cambuur part of?
FC OSS vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 49% chance of winning, Cambuur a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC OSS and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Cambuur in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.80x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
49%
2.02
25%
4.06
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.25
1.34
Cambuur xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
4%
25.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.34 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 8D 27L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.78 PPG from 46 outings (10W 6D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.89 PPG, Cambuur on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.13 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Cambuur in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 27L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 10W 6D 30L in their last 46 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Cambuur away?
FC OSS's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.09 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won 1-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Cambuur have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 46%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC OSS) and 59% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambuur in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC OSS's recent matches and 54% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC OSS's matches and 59% of Cambuur's.
Do FC OSS and Cambuur tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 1-8 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat FC OSS 1-8 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.90 xG and Cambuur 1.34 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-8 for 9 actual goals. FC OSS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.34 projection by 6.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Cambuur attack 1.08 / defence 1.42, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 59%, Cambuur 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.89 PPG, Cambuur 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.