FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Eindhoven, 5 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 52% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Eindhoven 65% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.916 / defence 1.077 | De Graafschap attack 0.919 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.506. Data: 46 FC Eindhoven games / 46 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 3.12. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
De Graafschap lead the H2H ledger, but FC Eindhoven carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 80% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.80 / De Graafschap 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.916 / def 1.077 | De Graafschap attack 0.919 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.49
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 45% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.92) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.39
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.29
1.49
De Graafschap xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.49 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 17W 6D 23L from 46 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 16L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.24 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 11W 3D 9L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 6D 23L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.57 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 56%, De Graafschap at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Eindhoven and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Eindhoven's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.49 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against De Graafschap attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 65%, De Graafschap 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.24 PPG, De Graafschap 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.