Excelsior 3-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Excelsior's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 57% versus Jong AZ 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 66% | Jong AZ 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.293 / defence 1.137 | Jong AZ attack 0.609 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Excelsior games / 35 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 60% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 19%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | Jong AZ 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 60% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Excelsior 1.97 / Jong AZ 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.293 / def 1.137 | Jong AZ attack 0.609 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jong AZ xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Jong AZ kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong AZ?
Excelsior 3 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong AZ part of?
Excelsior vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 60% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Excelsior and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Jong AZ in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.29) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.61x) against Excelsior's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.64
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.97
1.00
Jong AZ xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
38.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.00 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior's recent record stands at 19W 6D 10L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 19L across 35 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong AZ heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 9W 3D 5L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong AZ away?
Excelsior's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.76 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
1
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong AZ?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Jong AZ have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Jong AZ 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong AZ?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 53%, Jong AZ 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Excelsior) and 47% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong AZ in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Excelsior's recent matches and 41% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Excelsior's matches and 47% of Jong AZ's.
Do Excelsior and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and Jong AZ finished level at 3-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.00 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.29 / defence 1.14 against Jong AZ attack 0.61 / defence 1.21, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 60% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 19%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 66%, Jong AZ 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.