Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Excelsior, 1.90 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Excelsior, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against ADO Den Haag — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Excelsior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Excelsior and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and ADO Den Haag 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 70% | ADO Den Haag 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.991 / defence 0.742 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.185 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.312. Excelsior's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Excelsior games / 59 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 27%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 3.70. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | ADO Den Haag 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Excelsior 1.60 / ADO Den Haag 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.991 / def 0.742 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.185 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.15
ADO Den Haag xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Excelsior and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Record (7 meetings): Excelsior 4W | Draws 2 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.99) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.19x) against Excelsior's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 22/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.86
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.76
1.15
ADO Den Haag xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.15 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 17D 22L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 26W 19D 15L from 60 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Excelsior against 1.62 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 26W 19D 15L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Excelsior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.75 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 7-1 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 54%, ADO Den Haag 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 71% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Excelsior's games and 71% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 71% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Excelsior and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 27%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.33 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.