Emmen vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.70 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while NAC Breda have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–3 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
NAC Breda trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 60% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 64% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.88 xG and NAC Breda 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.052 / defence 0.899 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Emmen games / 11 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 31%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 3.23. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Emmen 1.88 / NAC Breda 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.052 / def 0.899 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Emmen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
NAC Breda xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 47% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.49
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.39
1.50
NAC Breda xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Emmen and 1.50 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 18W 10D 17L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 12W 13D 20L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.42 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 8D 11L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.27 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
Emmen's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.78 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 61%, NAC Breda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Emmen and 65% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; NAC Breda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Emmen's games and 56% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Emmen's matches and 65% of NAC Breda's.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.