Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 41%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 4W 3D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Emmen 2W, FC Volendam 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 52% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 59% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.78 xG and FC Volendam 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.039 / defence 1.201 | FC Volendam attack 1.103 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.257. Data: 62 Emmen games / 25 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 41% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 36%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 41% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Emmen 1.78 / FC Volendam 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.039 / def 1.201 | FC Volendam attack 1.103 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Emmen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Volendam xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Emmen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Emmen 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Emmen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Volendam part of?
Emmen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 41% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Emmen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.10x) against Emmen's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 62/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
41%
2.44
23%
4.40
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.44
1.66
FC Volendam xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Emmen and 1.66 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 10D 24L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 19W 11D 29L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Emmen against 1.15 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.51 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 19W 11D 29L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Volendam away?
Emmen's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.45 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Emmen
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
From 7 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Emmen 5-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC Volendam?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 52% for Emmen, 79% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Emmen and 72% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Emmen's games and 79% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Emmen's matches and 72% of FC Volendam's.
Do Emmen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Emmen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Emmen 1-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.78 xG and FC Volendam 1.66 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against FC Volendam attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 62/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 41% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 36%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.44 PPG, FC Volendam 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.