Cambuur 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cambuur welcome FC OSS to Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cambuur have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC OSS — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC OSS away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cambuur have won 1, FC OSS 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Cambuur 0–1 FC OSS — a FC OSS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC OSS trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 62% versus FC OSS 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 62% | FC OSS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.34 xG and FC OSS 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.777 / defence 0.916 | FC OSS attack 0.546 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Cambuur's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.546 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Cambuur's last 63 games and FC OSS's last 63.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 17%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.88 | Draw 3.40 | FC OSS 5.78. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — FC OSS's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 50% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Cambuur 1.34 / FC OSS 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.777 / def 0.916 | FC OSS attack 0.546 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.64
FC OSS xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs FC OSS kick off?
Cambuur vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 14 February 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Cambuur 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Cambuur vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC OSS part of?
Cambuur vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 53% chance of winning, FC OSS a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cambuur and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Cambuur vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.78x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 63 games and FC OSS's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.40
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cambuur xG
Total xG
1.98
0.64
FC OSS xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
5%
22.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.64 for FC OSS, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 27W 10D 26L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 16W 12D 35L from 63 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 31 home games (11W 7D 13L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 7D 21L from their last 31 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.79 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Cambuur (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 27W 10D 26L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 12D 35L in their last 63 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC OSS away?
Cambuur's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.29 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Cambuur have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won FC OSS 1-8 Cambuur.
Cambuur's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 3, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 68%, FC OSS 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cambuur) and 45% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Cambuur's recent matches and 29% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Cambuur's recent games and 45% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Cambuur's recent matches and 55% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.34 xG and FC OSS 0.64 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against FC OSS attack 0.55 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 17%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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