Dordrecht 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dordrecht at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Dordrecht have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dordrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

FC Eindhoven — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

FC Eindhoven away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–1 FC Eindhoven — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 57% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | FC Eindhoven 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while FC Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.00 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.110 / defence 0.749 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.034 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.749), which is pulling FC Eindhoven's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 68 games and FC Eindhoven's last 68.

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 18%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.71 | Draw 4.28 | FC Eindhoven 5.54. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 80% (last 10 away games).

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