Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Willem II 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 64% | Willem II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Willem II 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.700 / defence 1.191 | Willem II attack 1.157 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Den Bosch games / 67 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 60% | Willem II 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Den Bosch 0.80 / Willem II 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.700 / def 1.191 | Willem II attack 1.157 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Willem II xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Willem II kick off?
Den Bosch vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Willem II.
Where is Den Bosch vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Willem II part of?
Den Bosch vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 14% chance of winning, Willem II a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Den Bosch and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.70x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.16x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
14%
6.91
24%
4.11
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.64
1.85
Willem II xG
6.91
14%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
2%
43.75
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.85 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 67 games, going 15W 13D 39L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.91 PPG from 67 outings (37W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 8D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (13W 13D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.91 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 39L in their last 67 games (0.87 PPG), while Willem II have gone 37W 17D 13L in their last 67 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.15 PPG; Willem II away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 61%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Den Bosch) and 48% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 30%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 48% of Willem II's.
Do Den Bosch and Willem II tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Den Bosch 1-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Willem II 1.85 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Willem II attack 1.16 / defence 0.70, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 64%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.