Dordrecht 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 2W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 46% versus De Graafschap 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.49 xG and De Graafschap 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.986 / defence 0.833 | De Graafschap attack 1.067 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Data: 45 Dordrecht games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Dordrecht 1.49 / De Graafschap 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.986 / def 0.833 | De Graafschap attack 1.067 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.18
De Graafschap xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 44% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.07x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.90
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
De Graafschap xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.18 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 24W 10D 12L from 46 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 15L across 46 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.59 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 14W 7D 1L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 61%.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 24W 10D 12L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.23 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 59%, De Graafschap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Dordrecht and 59% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; De Graafschap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dordrecht's games and 64% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Dordrecht's matches and 59% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and De Graafschap finished level at 1-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.49 xG and De Graafschap 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.