Dordrecht 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Cambuur travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dordrecht haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.90 PPG, Cambuur 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for Cambuur and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 48% versus Cambuur 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Cambuur 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.21 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.243 / defence 0.859 | Cambuur attack 1.133 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.274. Data: 38 Dordrecht games / 38 Cambuur games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 21%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Cambuur 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | Cambuur 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Dordrecht 2.21 / Cambuur 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.243 / def 0.859 | Cambuur attack 1.133 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cambuur xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 August 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Dordrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, Cambuur a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dordrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.24) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.98
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.45
1.24
Cambuur xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
11%
9.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
2%
44.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.24 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 8D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. Dordrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.80 PPG from 40 outings (22W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. Cambuur haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.78 PPG, Cambuur on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dordrecht's home form reads 14W 6D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.80 points per game from 20 outings (11W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Cambuur in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Pre-Season
Cambuur
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 22W 6D 12L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.40 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cambuur in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Dordrecht won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Cambuur have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, Cambuur 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dordrecht and 45% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cambuur in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 40% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dordrecht's matches and 45% of Cambuur's.
Do Dordrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Cambuur 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.21 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Cambuur 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, Cambuur 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.