De Graafschap vs MVV – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees MVV travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
MVV — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 0.90 PPG, MVV 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, MVV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 2 for MVV and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
MVV trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and MVV 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 69% | MVV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.80 xG and MVV 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.399 | MVV attack 1.034 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 28% | Draw 19% | MVV 53%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.57 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 1.89. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
De Graafschap dominate the H2H record, yet MVV are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | MVV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 28% | Draw 19% | MVV 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 76% | xG De Graafschap 1.80 / MVV 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.399 | MVV attack 1.034 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: MVV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.46
MVV xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 28% chance of winning, MVV a 53% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 4 | MVV 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.01) and MVV's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
28%
3.53
19%
5.22
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.26
2.46
MVV xG
3.53
28%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.23
Clean Sheet
9%
11.67
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
2%
41.21
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.46 for MVV, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 17W 11D 14L from 42 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.48 PPG, MVV on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while MVV have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; MVV away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 76%, MVV 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 62% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 48% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of MVV's.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, MVV in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.