De Graafschap 3-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, De Graafschap have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2024, ended 4–2 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 68% and Jong PSV U21 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 72% | Jong PSV U21 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.96 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.373 / defence 1.044 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.069 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.462. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 47 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Jong PSV U21 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG De Graafschap 1.96 / Jong PSV U21 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.373 / def 1.044 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.069 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Jong PSV U21 xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 44% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.07x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.01
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.59
1.63
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.63 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 10D 15L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 8W 3D 12L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.64 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, Jong PSV U21 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for De Graafschap and 74% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of De Graafschap's games and 56% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of De Graafschap's matches and 74% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 3-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.96 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.63 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 44% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 72%, Jong PSV U21 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.