De Graafschap vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as De Graafschap welcome FC Volendam to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.00 (FC Volendam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and FC Volendam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | FC Volendam 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.13 xG and FC Volendam 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.396 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 34%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 2.94. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG De Graafschap 2.13 / FC Volendam 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.396 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.84
FC Volendam xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 March 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.21
21%
4.85
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.97
1.84
FC Volendam xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.84 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 17W 11D 13L from 41 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 22L across 41 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 1D 15L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.27 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Volendam away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 79%, FC Volendam 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for De Graafschap and 58% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of De Graafschap's games and 42% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of FC Volendam's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Volendam tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.