De Graafschap vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC OSS arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, De Graafschap are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and FC OSS 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 69% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.69 xG and FC OSS 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.399 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 37%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
De Graafschap dominate the H2H record, yet FC OSS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 1.69 / FC OSS 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.399 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.63
FC OSS xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 7W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.01) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.69x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
40%
2.51
23%
4.36
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.32
1.63
FC OSS xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.63 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 11D 14L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (12W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.12 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.36 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; FC OSS in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 57% for FC OSS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (De Graafschap) and 38% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 57% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of De Graafschap's recent games and 38% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.