De Graafschap 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 3D 2L at De Vijverberg — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, De Graafschap are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 60% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 58% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.21 xG and FC OSS 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.980 / defence 1.115 | FC OSS attack 1.014 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.384. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 48 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 5.00 | FC OSS 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 52% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG De Graafschap 2.21 / FC OSS 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.980 / def 1.115 | FC OSS attack 1.014 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.56
FC OSS xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 6W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.98) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (1.01x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
52%
1.91
20%
4.90
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.77
1.56
FC OSS xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
3%
33.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.56 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (11W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 15W 4D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.58 points per game from 24 outings (1W 11D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.98 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.04 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 58%, FC OSS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (De Graafschap) and 42% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC OSS in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 46% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of De Graafschap's recent games and 42% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.21 xG and FC OSS 1.56 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against FC OSS attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.