De Graafschap 4-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Emmen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.40 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Emmen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.76 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.344 / defence 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.091 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 De Graafschap games / 59 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 3.33. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG De Graafschap 1.76 / Emmen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.344 / def 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.091 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Emmen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
De Graafschap 4 - 0 Emmen.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | Emmen 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.34x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.04
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.17
1.41
Emmen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.41 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 28W 13D 20L from 61 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 23L across 61 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.59 PPG, Emmen on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 18W 4D 7L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Emmen's away record stands at 14W 5D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.51 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 13D 20L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 11D 23L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Emmen away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Emmen runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, Emmen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for De Graafschap and 62% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of Emmen's.
Do De Graafschap and Emmen tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Emmen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Emmen 4-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.76 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Emmen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.59 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.