De Graafschap vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for De Graafschap against 0.80 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: De Graafschap 3W, Dordrecht 2W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.38 xG and Dordrecht 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 19% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 5.26 | Dordrecht 2.78. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 80% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 19% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG De Graafschap 2.38 / Dordrecht 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Dordrecht xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 5 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.01) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.91x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.6%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.24
19%
5.19
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.6%
Home win
1 – 2
5.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.53
2.15
Dordrecht xG
2.24
45%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.04
Clean Sheet
12%
8.56
9%
10.82
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.15 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 4.53.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 11D 14L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (13W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.21 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.26 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 71% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.