De Graafschap 0-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Cambuur at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 1, Cambuur 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Cambuur 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Cambuur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.517 / defence 0.927 | Cambuur attack 1.296 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 De Graafschap games / 56 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 80% | Cambuur 20%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG De Graafschap 1.77 / Cambuur 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.517 / def 0.927 | Cambuur attack 1.296 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Cambuur xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Cambuur kick off?
De Graafschap vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
De Graafschap 0 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is De Graafschap vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Cambuur part of?
De Graafschap vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both De Graafschap and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Cambuur in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.52) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.02
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.46
1.69
Cambuur xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.69 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap come into this having played 56 games, going 27W 11D 18L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.36 PPG from 56 outings (22W 10D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.64 PPG, Cambuur on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
De Graafschap's home form reads 18W 4D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (13W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.73 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Cambuur in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Cambuur in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 27W 11D 18L in their last 56 games (1.64 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 22W 10D 24L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Cambuur away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.07 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 64%, Cambuur 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 57% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do De Graafschap and Cambuur tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat De Graafschap 0-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.52 / defence 0.93 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Cambuur 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.64 PPG, Cambuur 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.