Cambuur 4-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 19 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Cambuur's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Cambuur have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with MVV managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
The historical record gives Cambuur a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus MVV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 48% | MVV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.27 xG and MVV 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.160 / defence 0.732 | MVV attack 0.829 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.512. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Cambuur games / 58 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 68% | Draw 18% | MVV 14%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | MVV 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 60% | MVV 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 68% | Draw 18% | MVV 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Cambuur 2.27 / MVV 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.160 / def 0.732 | MVV attack 0.829 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.92
MVV xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs MVV kick off?
Cambuur vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Cambuur 4 - 0 MVV.
Where is Cambuur vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs MVV part of?
Cambuur vs MVV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 68% chance of winning, MVV a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cambuur and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 4W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Cambuur and MVV in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.16) and MVV's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.83x) against Cambuur's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.41
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.18
0.92
MVV xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
1%
70.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.92 for MVV, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 34W 11D 13L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 16W 14D 28L from 58 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (19W 5D 5L).
On the road, MVV have gone 3W 9D 17L from 29 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.33 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and MVV in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 34W 11D 13L in their last 58 games (1.95 PPG), while MVV have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or MVV away?
Cambuur's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.14 PPG; MVV away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Cambuur or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, MVV in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 5, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and MVV?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 55%, MVV 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cambuur) and 48% (MVV).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; MVV in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cambuur's recent matches and 41% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cambuur's recent games and 48% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and MVV tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, MVV in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 4-0 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat MVV 4-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.27 xG and MVV 0.92 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.16 / defence 0.73 against MVV attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 68% | Draw 18% | MVV 14%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 48%, MVV 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
MVV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.