Almere City FC 1-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Jong AZ at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.80 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 3 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus Jong AZ 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 52% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.102 / defence 1.057 | Jong AZ attack 0.990 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.362. Data: 12 Almere City FC games / 50 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 53% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 53% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 53% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Almere City FC 2.09 / Jong AZ 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.102 / def 1.057 | Jong AZ attack 0.990 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Jong AZ xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Almere City FC 1 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 53% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Record (4 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.74
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.43
Jong AZ xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
3%
30.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.43 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 46 games, going 7W 12D 27L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (15W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 4W 7D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 7W 12D 27L in their last 46 games (0.72 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Jong AZ 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Almere City FC) and 61% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Almere City FC's games and 65% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Almere City FC's matches and 61% of Jong AZ's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Almere City FC 1-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Jong AZ attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 53% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 26%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 52%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.