ADO Den Haag 2-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Emmen meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 3W 4D 3L at Bingoal Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: ADO Den Haag 2W, Emmen 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 69% and Emmen 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 69% | Emmen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.18 xG and Emmen 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.950 / defence 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.186 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. Data: 54 ADO Den Haag games / 54 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 27% | Draw 26% | Emmen 47%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.13. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 27% | Draw 26% | Emmen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.18 / Emmen 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.950 / def 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.186 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Emmen (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Emmen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Emmen kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 Emmen.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Emmen part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 27% chance of winning, Emmen a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): ADO Den Haag 2W | Draws 0 | Emmen 2W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Emmen in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.95) and Emmen's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.19x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
27%
3.72
26%
3.83
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.82
1.63
Emmen xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.63 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 23W 20D 15L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 27W 11D 20L from 58 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.59 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 14W 5D 9L from 28 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.59 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Emmen in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 23W 20D 15L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 11D 20L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.54 PPG; Emmen away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
ADO Den Haag have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 6 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Emmen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Emmen 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Emmen?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 71%, Emmen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ADO Den Haag and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of ADO Den Haag's games and 57% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Emmen tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Emmen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat Emmen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Emmen 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.18 xG and Emmen 1.63 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Emmen attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 27% | Draw 26% | Emmen 47%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 69%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.53 PPG, Emmen 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.