Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG, Sudtirol 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Virtus Entella have won 1, Sudtirol 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 54% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 38% | Sudtirol 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.49 xG and Sudtirol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.879 / defence 1.031 | Sudtirol attack 0.911 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Virtus Entella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Virtus Entella games / 48 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 43% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 28%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 70% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 43% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Virtus Entella 1.49 / Sudtirol 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.879 / def 1.031 | Sudtirol attack 0.911 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sudtirol xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol part of?
Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 43% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Virtus Entella and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Virtus Entella 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.88) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.41
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
Sudtirol xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.16 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 12W 16D 20L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 10W 23D 15L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.08 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 9D 5L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 4W 11D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 23D 15L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Sudtirol away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.57 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Sudtirol?
From 3 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sudtirol 1-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 70%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Virtus Entella) and 39% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Virtus Entella's games and 52% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 39% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.