Sudtirol 0-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Sudtirol, 1.40 for Palermo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Palermo in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sudtirol 2W, Palermo 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 60% versus Palermo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 58% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.49 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.196 / defence 0.993 | Palermo attack 1.091 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.025. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 40 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Palermo 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Sudtirol 1.49 / Palermo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.196 / def 0.993 | Palermo attack 1.091 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Palermo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Palermo kick off?
Sudtirol vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Sudtirol 0 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Sudtirol vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Palermo part of?
Sudtirol vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Palermo a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sudtirol and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Record (6 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 1 | Palermo 3W.
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.09x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.36
33%
3.01
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.60
1.11
Palermo xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.11 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 11D 16L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 15W 11D 14L from 40 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.40 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.35 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Palermo have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Palermo away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.32 PPG; Palermo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palermo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Palermo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Sudtirol, 68% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sudtirol and 63% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Sudtirol's games and 68% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sudtirol's matches and 63% of Palermo's.
Do Sudtirol and Palermo tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Sudtirol 0-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.49 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Palermo outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Palermo attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 58%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.25 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.