Sudtirol 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sudtirol welcome Mantova to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's away record: 0W 3D 5L from 8 road trips in Serie B this season (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 0.40 PPG, Mantova 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Mantova trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Mantova 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 62% | Mantova 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.842 / defence 1.412 | Mantova attack 0.822 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.102. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Sudtirol games / 16 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 31% | Mantova 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 31% | Mantova 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Sudtirol 1.29 / Mantova 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.842 / def 1.412 | Mantova attack 0.822 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mantova xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Mantova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Sudtirol 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Sudtirol vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Mantova part of?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 35% chance of winning, Mantova a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sudtirol and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.84) and Mantova's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.22
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.57
1.28
Mantova xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.28 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 1D 11L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 0.81 PPG, Mantova on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sudtirol's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Mantova have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Mantova away?
Sudtirol's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 0.88 PPG; Mantova away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Mantova in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 75%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sudtirol) and 38% (Mantova). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sudtirol's matches and 38% of Mantova's.
Do Sudtirol and Mantova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mantova in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 17, as Sudtirol and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 1.41 against Mantova attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 31% | Mantova 34%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 62%, Mantova 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 0.81 PPG, Mantova 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.