Sampdoria 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Spezia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Spezia's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 2, Spezia 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 61% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Spezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.96 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.934 / defence 1.099 | Spezia attack 0.976 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.106. Data: 54 Sampdoria games / 54 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 33% | Spezia 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Spezia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Spezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 28% | Draw 33% | Spezia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 0.96 / Spezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.934 / def 1.099 | Spezia attack 0.976 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Spezia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Spezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Spezia kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Spezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 28% chance of winning, Spezia a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 2 | Spezia 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Spezia's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
28%
3.63
33%
2.99
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.14
1.19
Spezia xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.19 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 14D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.43 PPG from 54 outings (18W 23D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.31 PPG, Spezia on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (5W 13D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.17 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Spezia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Spezia have gone 18W 23D 13L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Spezia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.27 PPG; Spezia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Spezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Spezia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
3
Draws
4
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
From 10 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Spezia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 54%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sampdoria) and 46% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 31%; Spezia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 46% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sampdoria's recent games and 46% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Spezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Spezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.96 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Spezia attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 28% | Draw 33% | Spezia 39%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Spezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.31 PPG, Spezia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.