Spezia 1-1 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Spezia take on Padova.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Spezia welcome Padova to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Padova — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Padova have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Padova's 1.33 PPG return is 0.73 points per game ahead of Spezia's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Padova in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 56% versus Padova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 44% | Padova 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.03 xG and Padova 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.845 / defence 1.231 | Padova attack 0.811 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.124. Data: 47 Spezia games / 9 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 29% | Draw 38% | Padova 33%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Padova 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 70% | Padova 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 29% | Draw 38% | Padova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 1.03 / Padova 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.845 / def 1.231 | Padova attack 0.811 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Padova xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Padova kick off?
Spezia vs Padova kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Padova?
Spezia 1 - 1 Padova.
Where is Spezia vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Padova part of?
Spezia vs Padova is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 29% chance of winning, Padova a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Padova in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Padova (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.45
38%
2.67
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.16
1.12
Padova xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Spezia and 1.12 for Padova, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 3D 5L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Padova have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Padova in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Padova have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.20 PPG; Padova away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Spezia or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Padova in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Padova have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Padova 2-2 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Padova see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 60%, Padova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spezia) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 60%; Spezia have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Spezia's recent matches and 40% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spezia's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Padova tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Padova in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Padova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, as Spezia and Padova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.03 xG and Padova 1.12 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Padova attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 29% | Draw 38% | Padova 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 44%, Padova 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Padova's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.