Spezia 1-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Mantova meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Mantova (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's away record: 0W 4D 5L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Spezia's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mantova's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Mantova — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 33% versus Mantova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 39% | Mantova 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 2.21 xG and Mantova 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.385 / defence 0.738 | Mantova attack 0.905 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Spezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Spezia's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Spezia games / 18 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | Mantova 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 40% | Mantova 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Spezia 2.21 / Mantova 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.385 / def 0.738 | Mantova attack 0.905 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Spezia (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mantova xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Mantova kick off?
Spezia vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Spezia 1 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Spezia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Mantova part of?
Spezia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 71% chance of winning, Mantova a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Spezia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Mantova in?
Spezia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Spezia's attack at 1.39x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.91x) against Spezia's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 3-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
71%
1.42
20%
4.96
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.91
0.70
Mantova xG
1.42
71%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
11%
9.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
98.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Spezia and 0.70 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Spezia have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 10W 7D 1L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 2.75 PPG from 8 outings (7W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — Spezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.17 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 10W 7D 1L in their last 18 games (2.06 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Mantova away?
Spezia's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 2.75 PPG; Mantova away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Spezia or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Mantova in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mantova have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won 4-1 on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Spezia 0-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 38%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spezia) and 38% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Mantova in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spezia's recent games and 38% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Mantova tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mantova in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Mantova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, as Spezia and Mantova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 2.21 xG and Mantova 0.70 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.39 / defence 0.74 against Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 39%, Mantova 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.