Spezia 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Spezia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Spezia have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Spezia against 1.40 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Spezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Spezia 3–0 Juve Stabia — a Spezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 35% versus Juve Stabia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 35% | Juve Stabia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.83 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.301 / defence 0.780 | Juve Stabia attack 0.983 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Spezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.301 — their 1.83 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Spezia have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Juve Stabia's projected output down. Data: built from Spezia's last 58 games and Juve Stabia's last 20.
Result probabilities: Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.66 | Draw 3.90 | Juve Stabia 7.08. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Spezia 1.83 / Juve Stabia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.301 / def 0.780 | Juve Stabia attack 0.983 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Spezia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Juve Stabia FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Spezia 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Spezia vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Juve Stabia part of?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 60% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Juve Stabia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Spezia vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.30) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.98x) against Spezia's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 58 games and Juve Stabia's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.90
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.63
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
44.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Juve Stabia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Spezia and 0.80 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 10W 8D 2L from 20 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 5L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spezia by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juve Stabia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 7W 2D 0L from their last 9 home games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Spezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 2W 5D 2L across their last 9 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Juve Stabia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Juve Stabia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Juve Stabia Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 10W 8D 2L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Juve Stabia away?
Spezia's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 2.56 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Spezia or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Juve Stabia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won Juve Stabia 0-3 Spezia on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Juve Stabia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Spezia and Juve Stabia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 44%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spezia) and 56% (Juve Stabia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 33%; Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Juve Stabia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Juve Stabia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spezia's recent matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Juve Stabia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Spezia's matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Spezia and Juve Stabia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Spezia's recent matches and 67% of Juve Stabia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 21, as Spezia and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.83 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.78 against Juve Stabia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 35%, Juve Stabia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 21
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →