Juve Stabia 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Frosinone at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Serie B appearances (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.40 PPG versus Frosinone's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Frosinone and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 58% | Frosinone 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Frosinone 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.875 / defence 1.163 | Frosinone attack 0.696 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.045. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Juve Stabia games / 19 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 22%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 4.55. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 44% | Frosinone 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Juve Stabia 1.32 / Frosinone 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.875 / def 1.163 | Frosinone attack 0.696 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Frosinone xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Frosinone kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Frosinone kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Juve Stabia 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Frosinone part of?
Juve Stabia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 46% chance of winning, Frosinone a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juve Stabia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Frosinone in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.88) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
46%
2.19
33%
3.06
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.17
0.84
Frosinone xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.84 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 7D 5L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Frosinone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juve Stabia's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 0.84 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 7W 7D 5L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Frosinone away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.56 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Frosinone in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2025, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 44%, Frosinone 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Juve Stabia) and 44% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Frosinone in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 44% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 44% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 20, as Juve Stabia and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Frosinone 0.84 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Frosinone attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 22%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 58%, Frosinone 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.